"The 12th Five-Year" period has a promising market for gear forgings

During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, the state will further encourage the development of advanced manufacturing industries, increase the level of major equipment localization, and further encourage the development of large-scale, precision, and specialized forgings technology development and equipment manufacturing. In October 2010, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology promulgated the “Machinery Basic Parts Industry”. The revitalization implementation plan listed 10 gear-driven equipments that are mainly encouraged to develop, focusing on the development of high-precision gear equipment. The forgings manufacturers supporting the gear transmission industry face a rare opportunity for development.

China's gear transmission industry has experienced rapid development during the “11th Five-Year Plan” period. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Gear Professional Association, China’s industrial output value of the gear industry increased year by year from 2005 to 2010, and the year-on-year increase was 20%. Above, the total industrial output value of 2010 was 94.635 billion yuan. The gear industry has become the largest industry in China's mechanical infrastructure.

Forgings as an important part of the gear industry, accounting for more than 30% of its total price, market demand continues to grow with the rapid development of the downstream industry. It is expected that in the future, with the improvement of the overall technological level of China's large-scale equipment manufacturing industry, the diversification of transmission equipment products and the continuous improvement of the technological content, the transmission equipment manufacturing industry will gain greater room for development, which will bring tremendous development to the gear forging production enterprises. opportunity.

1. The gears in the wind power main equipment of wind power equipment are the key components of wind power generation equipment. Their main role is to use the speed conversion function of gears to increase the speed of rotation of the fan blades to the required rotation speed of the generator.

The wind power market has maintained rapid growth in recent years due to global warming and the importance that countries attach to energy conservation, emission reduction and new energy use. According to the report of the World Wind Energy Association (WWEA), the total installed capacity of wind power in the world reached 149.10 million kilowatts at the end of 2009. In 2009, the newly installed capacity was more than 37.5 million kilowatts, an increase of 31% over the same period of last year. The new installed capacity in the first half of 2010 16 million kilowatts, with a cumulative installed capacity of 175 million kilowatts.

According to the report of China Wind Energy Association, China’s wind power continued its rapid development in 2010. The annual new installed capacity was 18,928,000 kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 37.13%, and the cumulative installed capacity reached 447.3933 million kilowatts, exceeding the United States and becoming the world’s The country with the largest installed capacity of wind power.

With the ever-increasing installed capacity of wind power in China and the world and the continuous increase in the installed capacity of stand-alone machines, the demand for wind turbine gear forgings will increase. According to statistics from the National Energy Administration, the national wind resource is 2.6 billion kilowatts. According to the national plan, the installed capacity of new wind power is expected to be around 10 million kilowatts per year between 2011 and 2020. In the future, China's newly added wind power capacity will be mainly based on 2.5MW and the continuous increase in installed capacity of wind power will drive the growth in the demand for gear forging products. It is estimated that the average annual demand for gear forgings in China will be 16-21 in 2011-2015. About 10,000 tons, the sustainable development of the wind power industry in the future will play a positive role in the gear forging industry in China.

Second, thermal power equipment In China's power energy structure, thermal power has been a dominant position, as of the end of 2010, China's thermal power installed capacity reached 707 million kilowatts, accounting for 73.44% of the total installed capacity of power generation equipment. According to the requirements of China's energy conservation and environmental protection, the state encourages the development of new energy sources such as wind power and solar energy. Among the new installed capacity, the installed capacity of thermal power will decrease, but according to China’s energy structure, thermal power will still be accumulated The structure dominates.

In the currently-operated thermal power units, the proportion of small thermal power units with high energy consumption and heavy pollution is relatively high. Small thermal power units with a capacity of 100,000 kilowatts or less alone account for nearly 30% of the installed capacity of thermal power, resulting in energy consumption and pollution emission targets for China's power industry. There is a big gap with the international advanced level. In January 2007, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Office issued the "Several Opinions on Accelerating the Shutdown of Small Thermal Power Units" and proposed to shut down small thermal power units with "large pressure and small pressure." In the thermal power equipment market, China will gradually eliminate thermal power plants with small installed capacity with large-capacity, high-efficiency and environmentally friendly power generation equipment to reduce energy consumption, reduce pollution emissions, and compress backward production capacity, and promote structural adjustment and energy conservation and emission reduction of the power industry. In the next ten years, it is expected that the basic pattern of China's coal-based electricity will not change, which is determined by China's primary energy structure. China's coal resources are rich, and the mining period is longer. At the same time, thermal power generation is less affected by seasonal factors and is suitable for China's national conditions. In the future, the demand for thermal power units of 300,000 kilowatts and above will still be very strong. It is estimated that the thermal power installed capacity in China will reach 915 million kilowatts in 2015, considering the shutdown of small thermal power stations. The installed capacity will increase by approximately 0.58 million kilowatts, and about 200 sets of large-scale coal-fired units will be added each year with a stand-alone capacity of 300,000 kilowatts or more. According to the calculation of 500 tons of gear forgings per large-scale coal-fired unit, it is estimated that domestic demand for gear forgings will be 100,000 tons per year.