Investment demand is still strong
The 4 trillion yuan in fixed-asset investment put forward by the country in response to the global financial crisis has continued to this day. As the level of urbanization in China is only 47.5%, and there is a big gap with 51.5% of the plan for the end of the 12th Five-Year Plan period, this means that a large amount of investment is still needed, especially in the rural areas of the Midwest, and a large number of small towns need urbanization. . In China's real estate market, the construction of 10 million sets of affordable housing each year has also made heavy trucks an indispensable important means of production.
A number of regional coordinated development plans issued by the country in recent years also involve large investments. Many of these investment targets are based on 50-year standards that are not falling behind, such as highways, high-speed + ordinary railways, airports, mines, oil and gas fields, etc. These projects are also inseparable from the heavy trucks involved in transportation. There are still two-thirds of the regions in China that need to develop vigorously. Therefore, the heavy truck market has huge market potential.
Demand is hard to increase
Whether the demand for the heavy truck market in China will be as strong as it was in 2010 will not only depend on investment, but also whether consumption and exports will contribute. Both the appreciation of the renminbi and inflation will become enormous pressures for economic development. This will cause the overall tone of the macro economy to become tighter, and automobile consumption will continue to be affected.
In addition, major heavy truck companies will face multiple difficulties such as falling product prices, falling profit margins, and tight cash flows. The price of diesel, steel, rubber and other raw materials continues to soar, which will bring heavy cost pressures to heavy-duty truck manufacturers. In the case of a large drop in gross profit margin, companies must continue to deepen reforms and extend the industrial chain in order to obtain greater profitability.
After nearly two years of rapid development in the domestic heavy truck industry, the space for market demand in 2011 has been small, and it is difficult for sales to increase continuously. The major manufacturers or enclosures, or mergers and acquisitions, production capacity will inevitably appear surplus. In other words, although the major manufacturers are full of confidence in the future, more than half of the manufacturers will not be able to complete sales growth targets set a year ago. The reason is simple, however, the market demand in 2011 was not as big as imagined.
Policy will be tilted towards high technology
In 2011, it was worth paying attention to heavy-duty truck companies. Starting from the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period starting in 2011, the management of the auto industry by relevant state departments will mainly focus on energy conservation and emission reduction. Therefore, the incentive policies for the automotive industry will be more reflected in supporting technological upgrading and eliminating backward production capacity. In particular, the "Regulations for the Administration of Commercial Vehicle Manufacturing Enterprises and Product Access" implemented on January 1, 2011 clearly does not support the entry of small-scale enterprises. This will help standardize China's heavy-duty truck industry, maintain market competition order, realize the transition from low-end to high-end products, and promote the adjustment and optimization of heavy-duty truck industry structure.
As China's transportation industry gradually moves toward intensification, the role of large logistics companies will become increasingly important. In addition, the profit model of the transportation industry will also shift from overloading in the past to the pursuit of transportation efficiency. This puts forward higher requirements for heavy-duty truck products. Heavy-duty, power-boosting, intelligent, and high-reliability, especially fuel economy, will become the focus of users. The domestic logistics market will drive the growth in the sales of long-haul tractors. In addition, weight-based charges have changed the choices of users, and some in-use vehicles with poor profitability will be rapidly updated in 2011, thereby releasing some of the demand in advance.
Judging from the trend of product development, the rising oil prices will accelerate the trend toward lightweight and high-power development. Especially in lightweight products, China's heavy trucks have great room for improvement. In 2011, more than 14 tons of kingpin heavy-duty trucks will have a power of more than 300 horsepower, and tractors of more than 350 horsepower will be more favored. This trend is particularly evident in the company's new generation of heavy trucks.
Exports mainly to developing countries
China’s heavy trucks still have obvious competitive advantages in labor costs and prices, making China’s heavy trucks develop steadily in traditional markets such as the Middle East, North Africa, and Latin America. The average price of commercial vehicles exported by China is 35,600 US dollars, the average price of truck-type products is about 15,000 US dollars, and the export price of tractors is about 35,000 US dollars. The price of similar foreign products is very high, and the price of double-bridge tractors amounts to 800,000 yuan, or about 120,000 US dollars. Comparing the two, the price advantage of heavy trucks in China is obvious. Based on the above advantages, the demand for heavy trucks in China is currently very strong in developing countries, and the alternative role of heavy trucks in China is gradually emerging.
In 2010, the export volume of China's trucks increased significantly. Among them, the dump trucks continued to maintain a leading position, and the proportion of tractors and special vehicle exports was gradually rising. The favorable export momentum laid a foundation for China's heavy trucks to expand into the international market.
Since 2011, some heavy truck companies have also set up production bases overseas, and their product image has gradually been recognized by users in overseas markets. Developing countries need to carry out infrastructure construction due to the fact that the economy is at a stage of development. There is a large demand for trucks, especially dump trucks. However, it is worth noting that a phenomenon that results in lower profits for products entering the developing country market is not conducive to lasting development.
To sum up, if there is no major bad policy introduced in 2011, the increase in demand space in China's heavy-duty truck market is mainly reflected in the second-class chassis special vehicles. In addition, the demand for high-end heavy-duty trucks with long service life and low fuel consumption will increase significantly, and the market share of mid- to high-end heavy trucks will increase.
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